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The US Federal Reserve raised the effective federal funds rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75%-4% on Wednesday, representing its first rate hike in three years as the economy grapples with sticky inflation, record-high energy prices and rising bond rates with no end in sight to the ongoing war with Iran that kicked off in February.

Investors began 2026 expecting multiple rate cuts, which tend to juice capital markets and spur dealmaking activity. But on 28 February things changed quickly after joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran largely curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital Middle East waterway where some 20% of the world’s oil transited before the conflict began.

Several factors weighed heavily on the decision to raise rates. The average nationwide gas price now is $4.36 compared to $3.18 a year ago, per AAA, and the average diesel price of $6.31 is a record. Brent crude oil has crested over $100 per barrel compared to about $68 a year ago. Inflation was 3.4% in August, compared to 2.9% last year. And US 10-, 20- and 30-year Treasuries have reached their highest rates in decades.

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However, some media industry observers have questioned whether trading activity can reliably stand in for broader public opinion. There are also concerns among critics over the growing links between news organizations and prediction platforms. 

At the same time, prediction market operators are facing regulatory tussles in the US. State regulators are moving to shut down the firms under gambling laws. The companies say their contracts should be regulated at the federal level as derivatives. 

However, the sector has grown substantially despite such disputes. Bernstein predicted in April that annual prediction market volume could reach $1 trillion by 2030. The research estimated volume was around $51 billion in 2025 and could grow to around $240 billion in 2026. 

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Before joining the Ministry of Finance, Fabio Macorin served in Brazil’s Federal Police for 17 years. For a decade, he focused specifically on the investigation and prevention of banking and financial fraud. This experience helped shape his approach to betting regulation, particularly regarding anti-money laundering, financial monitoring, combatting the illegal market and inter-agency cooperation.

Brazil’s regulated betting market formally launched in 2025 and has since become one of the most closely watched regulatory initiatives in the global gaming and betting sector. Macorin, who also served as the SPA’s undersecretary for monitoring and enforcement, has been directly involved in initiatives to combat illegal operators, strengthen cooperation with financial institutions, telecommunications providers and other government authorities, as well as develop data-driven tools for regulatory oversight and enforcement.

Commenting on his election, Macorin expressed his honour at joining the IAGR board and contributing Brazil’s experience to the association’s international work.